Saturday 29 January 2011

The global economic landscape has changed after the 2008 financial crisis

I have always looked forward to your articles as they present a good insight into World conditions without the hyperbole. Reading the latest,The global economic landscape has changed after the 2008 financial crisis, and the New Normals I have several question to ask your view. The global economic strategies for ALL countries big and small have always been based on the assumption of continued growth, and even 'new normal' economic landscapes are discussed premised on different patterns of growth. Balanced budgeting and stagnation are 'dirty words'

In the current era of rising oil, food and commodity prices, depleting forests and rare earth resources, irreversible global warming and climate change resulting in great floods and severe drought occurring at the same time, it seems to me that Global economic modeling based on continuous growth in our World of finite resources (unless we have found a way to mine the Moon?) is, to put it mildly, a very irresponsible act. Can we afford to assume that the world's economic systems can grow continuously without reaching its 'peak'? A peak situation in any resource or commodity means the stage where consumption or demand exceeds supply. Are Governments and the United Nations turning a blind eye to this imminent catastrophe?

Instead of discussing World economy based on 'eternal growth' demands, economists and politicians should begin to chart economic situations based on "peak" conditions, ie, for each resource, asset or commodity, declare when that peak situation will be reached, what will its maximum productivity be, is there a sustainable way to maintain growth in this area, what are the alternatives if a certain resource is completely depleted, etc etc. Peak Oil has been extensively discussed already, but have we wondered for example, can we survive without forests, if timber and wood based companies continue to chart continuous growth in forest products? Or, what is the maximum number of vehicles we can put on Earth without permanently and fatally clogging our systems, and what can we do if Rare Earth resources are depleted?

Because we lack the political will to do the right thing (eg Pres Obama refused to let GM, Ford and Chrysler "die", and we allow oil and food prices to be speculated on), we are now seeing a world of continuous strife, where in some countries today, the proverbial straw has broken the camel's back (Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen). Expect to see more trouble ahead of us in 2011.

Human Greed will be the death of Earth.

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